Asteroid Large Enough to Destroy an Entire City Could Still Strike the Moon in 2032, Scientists Say

The infamous “city-killer” asteroid 2024 YR4 could still strike the moon in the near future, according to Live Science.

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) made two planned observations of the asteroid 2024 YR4, and found in the first observation on Feb. 5 that 2024 YR4 could be slightly larger and rockier than previous studies indicated.

In the second observation, on March 26, JWST confirmed that the asteroid is no longer a hazard to Earth, with a near-zero chance that it will strike Earth on Dec. 22, 2032.

But, there is still a 2% chance that it could directly collide with the moon in 2032, report co-author Andrew Rivkin, an astronomer at Johns Hopkins University, told New Scientist.

A second round of JWST observations is planned for next month and will monitor the asteroid before it disappears into the outer solar system for the next few years, per Live Science.

The asteroid was first reported in December 2024 and is large enough to destroy an entire city. It was initially calculated to have a 1% chance of hitting the Earth in the year 2032. The chances of the asteroid’s collision then continued to fluctuate in the weeks following.

The estimation began with the asteroid having a 1% chance of hitting the Earth, then on Feb. 7, it more than doubled to 2.3%. Less than two weeks later, on Feb. 18, NASA recalculated the odds to 3.1%, before it dropped to 0.28% two days later.

Four days later, NASA announced the probability was “only 0.004%.”. NASA also reported that day that there is still a 1.7% chance that the asteroid could hit the moon on the same day in 2032. 

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The initial observations were conducted with ground-based telescopes and estimated that the asteroid had a diameter of about 180 feet, making it about as wide as the Leaning Tower of Pisa is tall.

If the asteroid were to collide with Earth, it could wipe out an entire city with a force comparable to 500 Hiroshima bombs.